One of the bigger stories from last week’s CES was the Ultrabook. Whether or not you agree with the oft-repeated dialog that Ultrabooks are merely Macbook Air copies — and imitation is the sincerest form of flattery – you probably feel it’s a good thing that the PC makers are trying hard to make better products.  Although I’m all for sharp design, lower weight, instant on etc, my own personal belief is that the PC world is somewhat missing the point with the current emphasis of the Ultrabook. The big picture isn’t about competing with Macs, it’s about the mass transition to mobile and how that affects the PC industry as a whole.

So, what’s my issue?  I think that the least important difference between notebooks and today’s mobile devices is weight, design, and instant on. Those are all things that the PC industry should have been working on anyway.  Even touch, which isn’t in evidence in the current crop of Ultrabooks but shows up in the roadmap, isn’t such as big of a factor given the rich interface of the PC.  No, to me the biggest issue is around connectivity and the constant availability of the network.

Think about it. Your smartphone is constantly available to add value, whether it’s in your hand or nestled in your pocket or bag.  Obviously it can announce a caller, but just as important it can perform background tasks such as syncing email, and it can alert you with reminders and notifications from the network.  Your notebook, on the other hand, undergoes a digital frontal lobotomy and sinks into a network isolation chamber as soon as you close the lid or move away from a WiFi connection.  Bridging the gap between the PC of today and the mobile world is much more about remaining useful, and relevant while we’re, well, mobile.

I want my next notebook to rest, but not sleep, and to be able to get me on the network automatically. It’s clear that most people don’t want to buy a cellular plan for their PC, but how about utilizing the enormous public WiFi network that’s already ubiquitous? That way I won’t be connected 100% of the time, but often enough as I walk down the street, grab a coffee, sit in the lobby of my hotel or hang out in the airport.  With a network connection my notebook can meet a smartphone halfway.  That’s an exciting step function into the mobile world and a compelling vision for all manner of devices which otherwise wouldn’t enjoy full time cellular connectivity.  That’s the Ultrabook I want to see!

Michael has already taken a look at the Black Friday data we saw in our regular reports, and the reasons why WiFi might matter for retailers like Macy’s, Safeway and Home Depot to include free access in their stores.

I’m going to look at this data from a different perspective completely, and think about what we can tell just from the connection trends we see, and whether there is an additional value that a retailer could gain from their free service in terms of what they can deduce from usage. The bar graph to the right (click on it to get a larger version) shows the percentage change in number of connections for each day of the black Friday week compared to the preceding week.

As expected, all the networks in this sample showed a drop in traffic on Thanksgiving day. Interestingly, not to zero, but that might be partially explained by all the connection times being recorded in PST, so some of the early morning Friday connections from stores in more eastern time zones would have been counted as Thursday connections.

Foot Traffic
I’m sure all of these stores have detailed reporting on their sales over this period, but I don’t recall seeing any of those counters at the doors to these stores that could tell them how many people walk in & out. Our simple WiFi numbers can’t give an absolute number of course since not every customer has a Devicescape enabled smartphone (yet), but assuming the sample we have is representative of the overall population, we can say that foot traffic at Macy’s increased almost 300% from the previous Friday (and almost 500% from their average level – Fridays are typically a strong day at most of the retailers in this list).

Likewise, despite strong TV advertising campaigns (at least in this area), it looks as though the traffic into Home Depot was unaffected by Black Friday. I should add that Home Depot is near the top of our most connected networks always, so perhaps their ad campaign was successful in that they maintained those high numbers on a day that people might not normally have visited them. They were #4 out of the seven on the chart in absolute connections, compared to #3 the previous Friday (their normal daily position).

Short Term
Once you look past that impressive spike on Friday, the numbers, even at Macy’s, for the rest of the weekend dropped almost back to normal levels, suggesting that Black Friday really is a one day event despite attempts to extend the sales across the entire weekend.

ROI
An advertiser looking that the success of their campaigns in the run up to black Friday can of course look at their sales numbers to see how successful they were. But being able to see the change in the number of visitors to the store might highlight other issues that are affecting sales (for example, I can personally attest to the fact that while I went into Macy’s in San Francisco, the lines to pay were so long that I did not buy anything).

Smartphones
Unlike Starbucks and McDonald’s, smartphones are likely the primary connection devices for in store WiFi at places like Home Depot and Macy’s since few people will be pulling out a laptop, or even a tablet. What that means is that the potential number of connecting users is much higher, especially when the network is part of our footprint and their devices connect automatically. While that means more traffic over the network, it also means a higher likelihood of getting a statistically valid sample to use for estimating visitor counts etc. And the traffic from a smartphone is unlikely to be that much of an issue for a good WiFi network, especially if it is limited to price comparisons, web searches and perhaps a few product photos being sent to friends and/or family members.

Beyond Black Friday
While Black Friday provides a great way to highlight this type of data, being able to track changes in the foot traffic into the stores in response to advertising, nationally or locally, is a definite value that could easily be derived from these WiFi networks. In a large department store, like a Macy’s, the counts could even be grouped by department.

Even day to day variations might be interesting to some venues, for example we tend to see a jump in McDonald’s connections on Fridays every week (Friday night treat for the kids perhaps?). Likewise, Sundays are always a little lower for everybody (perhaps a good day to run special incentives).

Privacy
A discussion like this would be incomplete without some reference to privacy. What information does a retailer get when you use their network? Well, in the case of the seven in this report, they get little more than the MAC address of the WiFi radio in your phone from the connection alone. While these are unique, I don’t know of any mapping between that identifier and the person who owns the device (I don’t think the carriers even record the WiFi MAC address as part of your account information).

As with any third party network you connect to (open or not), they could of course see any non-SSL traffic sent to/from your device across their network. If you don’t use an SSL protected search, in theory they could see what you search for while in the store. By now, most email servers should be using encryption, as are most social networking apps, and of course, if you need to check your bank balance or credit card limit in store, those sites are all encrypted and invisible to the retailer.

Others retailers, like Tesco in the UK require you to sign in using a loyalty card account, so they can actually connect your visits to your account. It will be interesting to see whether that authentication step is too much of an impediment to widespread use (Starbucks here in the US started with that model and then dropped the requirement).

Black Friday has come and gone.  As usual, the yearly craziness ensues such as all night shopping sprees, near-riots at retailers, and sadly, the occasional assault for merchandise or in this year’s case, pepper spray attacks.  Now, the craziness will only continue as Chanukah and Christmas are upon us.

Here at Devicescape we took it upon ourselves to analyze Wi-Fi usage and trends that emerged across our network during this year’s Black Friday frenzy. Since our virtual Wi-Fi network is made up of publically accessible Wi-Fi hotspots found around the world in places such as cafes, department stores, restaurants, hotels and airports to random shops that offer Wi-Fi as an amenity to their customers, we are able to track activity and connections within these available Wi-Fi network environments.

What did we find?

The obvious insight was that because of our millions of users, connections to in-store Wi-Fi spiked dramatically versus the week before.

While the rise in connectivity is interesting, what gets my attention are the stores that offer some type of Wi-Fi service.  Stores like Macy’s, Nordstrom’s and Barnes and Nobles bubbled up to the top of our network location list.

So is it a surprise that these stores offer this kind of value add to their customers?

For the average consumer, it probably is a surprise. But when you think about it some more, it shouldn’t be.  Most stores already have the infrastructure to handle Wi-Fi which is most likely for their internal business needs.  Think about it.  When you see sales or stock associates with wireless handheld scanners, headsets, etc., that should be a clear sign that the technical infrastructure is in place.  All it takes is a decision by someone within corporate to “flip a switch” and turn on the guest Wi-Fi.

What is the benefit to the retailer and the consumer if in-store Wi-Fi is switched on?

For the retailer, it’s a few things.  Aside from business efficiencies, it keeps customers in the stores.  How many times have you walked in a large department store only to find that it’s a black hole where you get no cell service, email or data?  Connecting to the Wi-Fi alleviates this and keeps consumers shopping in their walls without having to leave to check their phone for messages and such.  The future value will eventually be in mobile advertising and incentives.  I wouldn’t be surprised if sometime in the near-term, it will be common place for a retailer to text a shopper walking through their doors with a coupon or promotional offering due to triggering the in-store Wi-Fi with their phone.

The benefit to consumers will be basic connectivity.  The ability to communicate through whatever means as well as the ability to web browse on their phone would be an added value.  Consumers can engage in product comparisons, price checking and potentially sharing deals via social media.

Below are a few retailers that popped up in our network location list whose in-store connectivity spiked on Black Friday:

• Macy’s in store Wi-Fi usage increased over 500% on Black Friday
• Nordstrom saw a 175% jump in connectivity
• Staples in-store connectivity grew 58%
• Barnes & Noble in-store Wi-Fi connections grew by 50%

A couple other interesting facts were that Home Depot displayed no significant change in connectivity even though they were promoting Black Friday deals.  Separately, Best Buy showed up for the first time in our network which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.  Shoppers trying to satiate their electronics fix would make Best Buy an obvious retailer to visit.

What does all this mean?  Aside from the simple fact that our millions of users aren’t always shopping online, these increases show the impact of overall foot traffic at these various large retailers.  More importantly, it shows that Wi-Fi isn’t just some coffee shop value add, it’s available almost everywhere we go as consumers.  Don’t be surprised if you head to your local mall and you automatically connect to a store’s Wi-Fi network.  For you it means continuous call and data connectivity.  For the retailer, it means customer retention and more sales.  For the wireless operator, it means they better get their affairs in order when it comes to offload strategy because the potential in costs savings is theirs for the taking if they leverage all of the available Wi-Fi at their disposal.  The major retailers that showed up on our network locations list is a clear indicator that it’s pervasive and more common than we tend to believe.    This list, as well as the connections that support it, will only continue to grow.

That sounds like a loaded question doesn’t it.  By hearing that question out of context, one would most likely answer yes.  Now let me bring it into context.  A recent CNN article reported two malls in the US are axing programs that would track and survey shoppers in their venues through their mobile phones.  The creators of the technology iterate that personal data like name or phone number aren’t captured.  What are tracked though are movements which could be used to analyze shopping patterns and any other qualitative information such as survey answers which can also be collected.

Now assuming your data is anonymized, would you still be ok with a retailer tracking and communicating with you?  What if through these mobile means, you would be able to receive in-store coupons or incentives?  What if the opt-in/opt-out process were more obvious?  If the privacy concerns are eased, wouldn’t these incentives add value to the customer shopping experience?

The proprietors of this mobile technology, Path Intelligence, compare it to online retail tracking.  Online retailers are able to track customer habits, purchases and the overall user experience while still protecting the privacy of their consumers.  By this rationale, it seems to make sense.  Although I do believe people still need the perception of choice.  By allowing an opt-out mechanism, this at least gives a shopper the ability to not participate in this engagement.

The mobile touchpoint and content streaming through it is not just a headache for wireless operators but for the downstream players such as retailers who choose to leverage the power of wireless connectivity and growing mobile device usage.  Free wireless for all I say but it’s situations like this that make one cautious and think about the rules and structure around the idea.

Read the CNN article here:  http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/28/news/economy/malls_track_shoppers_cell_phones/index.htm?hpt=hp_t3&hpt=hp_c1

Chalk it up as another banner quarter for Devicescape.  On the heels of growing to over 4 million hotspots globally, Devicescape just released its Q3 2011 Wi-Fi report.  What’s interesting about this quarter’s report is that I’m seeing some wavering in service provider loyalty.  Being a long-time Verizon Wireless subscriber myself, I assumed that most people were like me and would be resistant to carrier switching.  Unless of course it’s a hardware matter such as getting an iPhone but that has become irrelevant since Verizon now carries that smartphone.

Data capping has become more and more of a subscriber concern over the last year with major carriers announcing intentions to get rid of unlimited data plans.  Although the reality is that most people don’t come close to the proposed plan caps, the idea of taking away consumer value from their plans is perceived as a hit to the consumer experience.  In the Devicescape report, 88% of respondents said that unlimited data plan offers would sway purchasing decisions.  If the mobile operators want to avoid carrier switching, they better come up with some solutions and educate their subscribers.  Data usage is only going to increase over time as rich content such as movies will get more data intensive.

One obvious and cost effective solution to this potential problem is data offloading.  If the network operators can offload data to existing Wi-Fi networks whereby subscribers come nowhere near their data caps, the matter of capping and unlimited plans will eventually become a non-issue.  And as a result, subscriber retention will increase.

There are more interesting statistics like this in the current report.  Below are other findings we uncovered:

• Almost 82 percent of respondents say that Wi-Fi is very important when it comes to using a smartphone or tablet, while only 4.9 percent say it is not important.

• Wi-Fi takes the lead over cellular networks, with 88 percent of respondents agreeing that rich media such as video runs much faster on Wi-Fi.

• A staggering 82.9 percent of respondents expect their service provider to provide them with a Wi-Fi network.

• Twenty-six percent of respondents are not aware that many service providers are data-capping smartphone plans.

• Wi-Fi hotspots are clearly in demand, with 78.7 percent of respondents relying on Wi-Fi hotspots for device connectivity needs while roaming.

To view the full report, download a copy using the link below.

http://www.devicescape.com/assets/docs/DevicescapeQ32011WiFiReport.pdf

I’m sure many of you have heard that the World Broadband Alliance just released their report titled “Global Developments in Public Wi-Fi”.  If you haven’t seen the report, you may have read one of the many articles that cite its many statistics.  The most significant statistic that’s been brought to our attention is the projected number of hotspots by 2015.  WBA projects 5.8 million hotspots. (We at Devicescape can confidently say there are significantly more but that’s a whole different discussion).  The point being is that WiFi is pervasive.  We all expected that though.

Blogger Kevin Sandlin on the CWNP blog  poses an interesting question.  What will the state of WiFi be like beyond 2015?  He cites the WBA report, a Cisco report on their Networking Index and Forecasts, and IDC data.  In my view he doesn’t make any bold predictions but he does point out something interesting.

From the Cisco report, he states that by 2015, WiFi will consume 37.2 exabytes of data versus 37 exabytes for wired and 6 exabytes for cellular.  The traffic over WiFi is 6x that of cellular.  So “mobility” as we know it today will really just be WiFi down the road.

I think that’s an interesting viewpoint and something that Devicescape hopes to be a part of in 2015 and beyond.  As Kevin Sandlin so casually states, “All three of these reports also reflect the fact that it’s a great time to be in the Wi-Fi world.  Can’t wait to see what will happen after 2015. The next few years are going to be fun…if you’re in the Wi-Fi world.”

That’s great to hear.  It means I may still have a job.

Here’s a link to Kevin’s Blog Post on CWNP:  http://www.cwnp.com/cwnp_wifi_blog/what-happens-in-wi-fi-after-2015

We’re happy to announce that we’ve added support for Blackberry devices.  Easy WiFi is now available on App World.  Hurrah!

This version of Easy WiFi is focused more tightly on the cellular offload problem.  It allows users to automatically connect to the Easy WiFi Network or any other WiFi providers they might use, but it drops the map and certain other niceties.  It’s just amazing how rapidly the mobile world is evolving and how the platform lineup has shifted so dramatically over the last few years.

When we started it was all about Windows Mobile, Windows PC, and Symbian.

Then Symbian started to mean “Nokia”.

Then iPhone appeared and we saw the ascension of the smartphone but WinMo apparently was in the bathroom while everyone was getting ready to go out to the party.  It quickly became iOS, Blackberry and Windows PC and we have to invite Symbian along.

Windows PC goes to the gym and tries to lose some pounds with Atom.

Suddenly Android hits and the lineup is iOS, Blackberry, Android.  Symbian fell off a cliff, and although the PC is still huge the playing field has changed and the Netbook doesn’t allow you entry into the new mobile club.

Today, it’s all about Android and iOS.  Blackberry still is huge as is the PC, but they’re just not at the head of the pack.  WinMo and Symbian are essentially dead.  Windows Phone looks interesting but a niche for now and no momentum.

What’s next?  I don’t know, but I know we’re sick of porting!

We recently decided to deemphasize iOS and withdraw our Easy WiFi apps from the App Store.  Sadly, the iOS platform has become less and less capable of supporting our product and we felt that the functionality had become so marginalized that it frustrated users.  It was doing more harm than good to keep them available.

This is somewhat ironic given that iOS was the first mobile platform we supported.  For a while, Easy WiFi was a top app in the App Store, making it to number 4 in popularity.  We felt like rock stars for a while!  This was during the days when AT&T needed you to jump through hoops to get connected at Starbucks and users quickly discovered we were a one-click solution to that problem.  Soon after, iOS 3.x rolled out and not only made the platform hostile to Easy WiFi (and similar apps from our peers) but AT&T locations gained built-in authentication (via WISPr, for those of you who care).

This wasn’t an easy decision for us.  Apple is very relevant and we certainly feel we have huge value to add.  Their current solution for hotspots – other than the single carrier network – is truly horrible and so, well, un-Apple!  Perhaps they hired some people who designed Windows Vista’s UAC?  My guess is that most iOS users are just so sick of clearing the “auto login” popup that they simply switch WiFi off and stick to cellular, adding further to the carrier data congestion woes.

So, our apologies to those of you out there with iOS, especially the loyal enthusiasts that have helped us with Easy WiFi over the past few years.  We hope to see you again, perhaps on iOS or maybe Android…which is powerful enough to support us fully

AT&T announced yesterday that they’re creating a WiFi “hotzone” in Times Square, NY.   While there is speculation that this might be linked to the upcoming launch of the 4th gen iPhone, which is rumored to make video calls only over WiFi, I think it’s simply indicative of the mega trend towards WiFi offload and free (or bundled) access.

There’s always been a lot of free WiFi around, but now we’re seeing it being embraced strategically by the big networks, in locations where many people are concentrated.  Corporate altruism?  Perhaps.  More likely a way to push out good services, especially multi-media, to users without devastating the cellular infrastructure or requiring billions of new dollars in new investment.

It’s great to see WiFi pushing to the fore as a strategic complement to cellular.  Our recent WiFi report highlighted that users understand 3G and WiFi and want them both, together!  But, it’s clear that WiFi as a service complement will only work if it’s as reliable and easy to use as cellular, and that’s where WiFi still has a long way to go.

Here at Devicescape we’re very energized by this trend as our specialty is automating the WiFi experience.    We completely support the AT&T network so that iPhone or AT&T home broadband users, and users with free Starbucks-card WiFi accounts,  can get logged in quickly on their devices.  Even better, all the locations which don’t need accounts (like Barnes and Noble) are part of our Easy WiFi Network, so everyone gets instant connections there without doing anything.

Over the coming months we’re going to see more and more networks going free.   3G offload?  Amenity for venues?  Anti-churn?  Whatever the reason, it’s good for users!

We just completed the Q1 survey for our quarterly WiFi Report, where we probe into the opinions of our membership about WiFi.  I thought I would share a few of the interesting findings.

Check these charts out (sorry for the squeezed font size):

Bit of an obvious response, perhaps, given that the survey was done to the Easy WiFi membership, but it’s still a big datapoint for device manufacturers.  With so much attention on 3G connectivity it’s great to know that there’s such demand for WiFi.

So, if users want WiFi enablement, what types of devices do they use today?

Today it’s a PC and smartphone market.  What’s in the shopping wish-list though?

The iPad is a runaway hit with almost 59% of respondents wanting one!  This could have something to do with the survey being conducted right at the peak of the iPad launch, of course.  Number 2 is for digital cameras.  Interesting.  Having lost an SD card full of vacation photos last year I love the idea of photos being stored up on the web!

Check back later for more insights.  If you’re interested in getting a copy of the WiFi Report you can request it here and download older reports immediately.